Регулювання обмінного курсу гривні в умовах фінансової нестабільності

Abstract

Розглянуто валютно-курсові процеси в Україні протягом 2014–2015 рр. та причини, що їх зумовили. Проаналізовано основні заходи у сфері валютного регулювання, які застосовував НБУ у періоди загострень на валютному ринку, виокремлено їх позитивні і негативні наслідки. Запропоновано потенційні заходи для стабілізації ситуації на валютному ринку й обґрунтовано необхідність вибору адекватного монетарного режиму із врахуванням проблем, з якими стикається економіка України. Introduction. During last two years many developing countries’ currencies devaluated, which confirms the volatility increasing of the global foreign exchange market and the lack of effectiveness of traditional instruments of exchange rate regulation. This raises the significance of the problems of finding ways to improve these instruments to ensure the stability of exchange rates of national currencies, which is especially relevant for Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to analyze exchange rate processes in Ukraine and corresponding actions of the NBU as a reaction to current challenges, and to study potential measures to help stabilize the situation on the currency market and avoid significant exchange rate volatility under conditions of a gradual transition to inflation targeting. Results. The article deals with exchange rate processes in Ukraine during 2014–2015 and reasons which caused them, namely, gradual ending of quantitative easing program by US Federal Reserve, domestic political and economic reasons, wrong actions of the NBU in the monetary regulation, etc. Main activities in exchange rate regulation applied by the NBU in periods of exacerbations on the currency market are analysed. These measures include in addition to economic methods (FX interventions, interest rate increase, and change of exchange rate regime) administrative measures (strengthening of existing or introduction of new foreign exchange restrictions). Based on the analysis positive and negative effects of these measures are singled out. Conclusion. The exchange rate regulation measures of the NBU generally helped stabilize the situation on the currency market, but they were accompanied by a number of failures, and therefore some of them need to be corrected for greater efficiency, namely the de-jure return to the regime of managed float, partial and balanced liberalization of exchange rate regulation, which should be situational, increase of confidence in the NBU by economic agents, “launching” interest rate mechanism. This makes it necessary to re-examination the optimal monetary regime in Ukraine, which would allow combining managed floating of the national currency with informal inflation target.