Соціально-економічна орієнтація валютно-курсової політики України: плаваючий валютний курс, офіційна доларизація чи валютна рада

Abstract

Досліджена проблема вибору режиму валютного курсу України з орієнтацією на пріоритетне вирішення завдань зростання рівня життя населення. Аргументовано, що в умовах нинішнього стану соціально-економічного розвитку країни можна підняти добробут населення до середньоєвропейських показників лише на основі запровадження ефективного валютного режиму. Обґрунтовано необхідність перегляду валютно-курсової політики у напрямку ревальвації гривні. Introduction. The problem of choosing the exchange rate regime in Ukraine by giving priority to socio-economic standard of living is examined. The essence of the concept is that the monetary policy should form the basis to solve the issue of welfare and approach it to the average European indicators. Ukraine now occupies the last places in Europe on the amount of the average salary (173 euros) and retiring pensions (63 euros). Besides, hryvnia is considered to be one of the most undervalued currencies in the world. Purpose. Taking into account all the above-mentioned, the exchange rate policy, which is based on the current regime of a floating hryvnia, should be revised. This leads to a long-term poverty that will hinder an economic and social development and postpone the euro-integration plans of Ukraine for an indefinite period. Mechanism of overcoming the economic crisis and the crisis of welfare should be based on the use of the exchange rate mechanism. Results. For this, we have to revalue the hryvnia exchange rate in order to bring in a relatively short period the amount of salaries and pensions in the currencies of developed countries to the indicators that Ukraine had in the year when Russia started aggression and the beginning of the antiterrorist operation. Later it will keep growing as the result of the economy development. Conclusion. Considering the exchange rate regimes, including official dollarization and currency board, there is feasibility in formation of the exchange rate policy based on the latest model. Since the currency rate is derived from the value of the balance of payments, thus the fulfillment of this minimum-task can be real only through a financial recovery as well as the use of reserves that “lie on the surface”. Most of them are already or become well-known. This is the deficit financing through the issuance of bonds; legalization of economy; deoffshorization; radical increase of import substitution; curbing of capital flight processes; increase of transparency in the banking sector; prevention of concealment of currency proceeds abroad; extension of use of the national currency in domestic circulation of money; a special regime of exchange relations with “law-abiding companies”; involvement in the banking sector currency that is in hands of population; spread of international currency swaps practice; the use of unconventional monetary policy by the National bank to repurchase of securities and debt obligations.