Моделювання впливу податкової політики на соціально-економічний розвиток країни

Abstract

Проаналізовано динаміку показників у сфері оподаткування України. Побудовано комплексну економетричну модель впливу податкової політики на економічний розвиток країни, яка містить два блоки: симультативну модель сфери оподаткування України та модель оцінювання окремих статей доходів Зведеного бюджету України. На основі моделі здійснено оцінку структури взаємозв’язків між основними макроекономічними показниками та показниками Зведеного бюджету України, прогнозовано їхній майбутній розвиток за різних сценаріїв. Introduction. Introduction. Fiscal policy is an important component of social and economic policy. But even many legislative changes in the tax area not tackled the main problems. So researches of infl uence of tax policy on economic and social development of the country and to study the dynamics of individual items of consolidated budget of Ukraine is especially actual today. Purpose. Assessment of interdependent relations between the major macroeconomic indicators and indicators of the consolidated budget of Ukraine. The infl uence of individual factors on the basic parameters in the taxation sphere. Methods. The developed econometric model consists of model in taxation sphere of Ukraine and includes evaluation of some articles of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine. Modeled relationships between the main macroeconomic indicators and indicators of Ukraine’s budget. The estimated impact of individual factors on the revenue of the budget. Using a multiplier index predicted seasonal dynamics of basic macroeconomic indicators - gross domestic product (GDP). Results. In the article investigated the modern approaches to the economic and mathematical modeling in tax and public sector. Substantiated the choice of models for the research. The developed basic stages and investigated relationships in modeling the impact of tax component. Systematized the main indicators of taxation and revenue of the budget, which most accurately refl ect the causal relationships between them. The evaluation of existing dependencies and forecast GDP for different scenarios. Conclusions. Proposed model allows not only to explore the structure of relationships between indicators of taxation, but also predict the endogenous variables of the model taking into account the macroeconomic situation in the country.