From convergence to divergence? A temporal cluster analysis of economic growth, digitalization, and R&D in the EU

Abstract

The article conducts a comparative cluster analysis of 27 EU countries in 2017 and 2022 on three key indicators: GDP growth per capita, Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), and research and development (R&D) spending. The selected years reflect the pre- and post-pandemic economic landscape. The analysis reveals three stable types of clusters: innovation and digitalisation leaders, high-growth but low-innovation economies, and a group of stagnant or transition economies. The dynamics of transitions between clusters are tracked, and recommendations are formulated for adaptive economic policy within the EU. The study proposes recommendations for a more targeted and differentiated policy framework aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and innovation. The suggested measures include increasing R&D expenditure in less advanced countries, developing digital skills, improving infrastructure, and accelerating the transition toward a knowledge-based economy