The Orientation of Ukraine’s Trade

Abstract

This article analyzes the geographical structure of Ukraine’s trade. A modified version of the Gravity Equation is used to measure the impact of the selected groups of countries. Ukraine’s trade appears to be very strongly con- nected with former Soviet Republics, while the OECD members seem to be un- derrepresented. Over the last years, the orientation towards former Soviet Re- publics has got stronger. However, the orientation at the OECD members has improved since 2003 as well. Institutional convergence towards the West, e.g. Ukraine’s accession to the WTO, could double the potential trade with the OECD countries. The potential trade with the former Soviet republics, in contrast, could decrease down to one tenth of the present value.